On February 1, 2018, the third Roller Derby World Cup starts in Manchester, England. 38 national teams will compete to become the best in the world. At the previous two world cups, in Toronto in 2011 and Dallas in 2014, the winner was never in doubt. USA, the team from the country where modern roller derby was born in 2004, won blowout victories: beating Canada 336–33 in 2011 and England 219–105 in 2014.
Will USA make it three in a row in 2018? Maybe, and maybe not. Things are changing fast in roller derby. US leagues used to always win roller derby’s world championships. Texas, Kansas City, Olympia, and Rocky Mountain won some of the first championships between 2006 and 2010, then Gotham, from New York, won 4 in a row between 2011 and 2014 and Rose City, from Portland, Oregon, won in 2015 and 2016. But, in November 2017, for the first time in roller derby history, a non-US team won the world championship. Victorian Roller Derby League from Melbourne, Australia took the trophy home, and they won comfortably, beating defending champions Rose City 180–101. Can Australia win the Roller Derby World Cup too?
When Australia and USA meet at the 2018 World Cup, it could be one of the greatest roller derby matchups the world has ever seen.
Statistically speaking, it is certainly possible. Roller derby website flattrackstats.com assigns ranking scores to roller derby leagues based on their recent competitive performance. Each world cup athlete also plays for one of these leagues — Gotham, or Rose, or Victorian, for example. The average ranking score of all the leagues represented on the USA roster is 959; the average ranking score of all the leagues represented on the Australia roster is 939. That’s a statistical matchup USA would win about two thirds of time, with an average score ratio of 41:34.
But this assumes all athletes on a roster get equal playing time. Fourteen of Australia’s athletes play for Victorian Roller Derby League, including three jammers, and one of them is Christy Demons, who scored an astounding net positive 199 points during the championships. Australia could field nothing but those world champion Victorian skaters if necessary, and they have an average ranking score of 1054. USA’s 14 highest ranked athletes have an average ranking score of 988 — more than sixty points lower. In that statistical matchup, Australia wins about 94 percent of the time and scores twice as many points.
None of this is scientific: players do not represent the average ability of their league and a team does not perform at the average level of its players. USA has a roster of stars who are anything but statistically average, including three legendary jammers, Bonnie Thunders, Scald Eagle, and Loren Mutch, and one of the greatest blockers of all time, Jackie Daniels. Victorian Roller Derby League’s MVP jammer Lady Trample will be skating at the World Cup for Team Aotearoa from her native New Zealand, not for Australia. Blocker Shaina Serelson skates for Victorian Roller Derby League and knows all their strategies but comes from Wyoming and is on USA’s roster.
There are other uncertainties to consider. Some players perform beyond expectations as do some teams. Coaching matters and so does conditioning. USA’s athletes have more experience, including more World Cup experience, but Australia has a younger team. One thing is certain: if and when Australia and USA meet at the 2018 World Cup, the game is more likely to be a classic than a blowout. It could even be one of the greatest roller derby matchups the world has ever seen.
And if USA does win in 2018, it is only a matter of time before Australia or another team that is not the USA rules the world. Roller derby is now a global sport with talented competitive teams everywhere. Four of the twelve teams in this year’s championships came from outside the United States: in addition to Victorian Roller Derby League there was Crime City from Malmö, Sweden, who placed sixth; Montréal Roller Derby from Canada, who placed tenth; and London Rollergirls from the UK, who placed twelfth. Eight of the world’s top twenty roller derby leagues are now outside the USA. The thirty-eight teams at the 2018 World Cup reflect this growth: there were only thirty at the 2014 World Cup, and thirteen in 2011.
Can Australia win the Roller Derby World Cup in 2018? Yes. Will they? We cannot know until the games are played—but for the first time it is going to be close, and finding out will be more exciting than ever.
Frogmouth is the uniform sponsor of USA Roller Derby and Team Australia Roller Derby and sponsors two athletes mentioned in this article: Jackie Daniels and Lady Trample.
